According to compelling narratives, some of the main democratic institutions today were partly determined by random events during a relatively short time period in the past. The events and time periods are generally historically unique and country specific, but a common elementary idea underlies many of these narratives: modern democratic institutions were shaped enduringly by transitory random events in the past. I propose an empirical examination of this idea that combines the recent history of democratic (non-)transitions in the world’s most agricultural countries with data on the repeated transitory rainfall shocks that impact these countries' agricultural sectors. I find that while the effects of rainfall shocks on agricultural output are transitory, rainfall shocks have persistent effects on political institutions. Authoritarian regimes experiencing negative rainfall shocks are more likely to be democratic three, five, and ten years later. Hence, my empirical findings support the elementary idea that there are situations where transitory random events can lead to persistent democratization.